Are you safe to be let out? - your chances of becoming a victim

If you view yourself  as tough, confident and a bit useful in an argument, check the  mirror, and you might find you've got the word 'victim' written across your forehead in dayglo marker pen.

But maybe you’re easily sunburned, a bit of a couch potato, elderly or don’t see your friends as often as you like?

Then as well as inheriting the Earth, you’re much more likely to live your life unmolested by burglars, pickpockets and assassins.

Yes, the more vulnerable you think you are, the less likely you are to end up as a crime statistic.

It’s official. 

Criminologists, coppers and the Home Office all know that crime is not nearly as prevalent in this country as we all think it is. 

 Even though the British Crime Survey (BCS) continues to tell us that our nation  is becoming safer,   75% of us remain convinced that violent crime is more widespread nationally than it really is. 

We don’t even know what (isn’t) going on outside our own front doors, with 36% overestimating the amount of crime in their own neighbourhood .  (For the truth about your area, there’s a great link at the bottom of this post).   We're just terrified that we'll be the next one the machete will descend upon.

The BCS tells us that by 2009, murders, manslaughters, and child killings had fallen by 17 per cent to a 20-year low. Domestic burglaries and thefts were up but the violent crime and gun crimes which so petrify us are actually down by six and 17 per cent respectively. Overall, crime is down by 5 per cent

The BCS collates information given by people like us.  Its  reports are widely quoted in the media.  It’s trustworthy -   the police statistics obviously can’t include unreported crime, but the BCS does.   Despite it being one of the most reliable sources we have, independent polls show that  93 per cent of us still think that these figures are wrong on a national level.

Why do we stick to our (legally licenced) guns on this one, when there are no contradictory statistics?   

One certainty is that  street crime and anti-social behaviour are more likely to engage or interest us than say, credit card fraud. Of course it’s the  cops-and-robber stories which are the most exciting.   News editors know that we find the spectacular stuff fascinating.  So they give us what we want.

Many feel uncomfortable about admitting it, but tragedy and bloodshed is indeed what we want to hear about.  Rather than be ashamed of such visceral leanings, perhaps it is time for us to admit to our human failings and take a look at what really captures our interest in the media, and why.

The answer, for many, may be that we choose to follow these stories for the same reasons that we love TV soaps. The incidents we look at, as outsiders rather than Eastenders,  are something that only a few have ever experienced in real life.   Someone describes a dreadful scenario, and  we can empathise with the victims, and detest the perpetrators.   We can cheer on our heroes, and hiss at the villains, from the comfort and safety of our own homes.

But for real-life crime, it’s not surprising that our opinions are shaped by the space the papers allocate to, for example, the story of Rhys Jones,11, tragically gunned down by gang members in a pub car park.  Or MI6 worker Gareth Williams, whose body was found concealed in a holdall in August 2010.

Although we see continuing reports on events like these on an almost daily basis, the truth is that such horrors are really happening more and more rarely.  They’re merely reported for longer.  With a different pespective or new fact each day, a canny editor will ensure that his audience is fed new information on a regular basis, to keep an interesting story alive. 

The statistics show that this sort of crime is unlikely to have any material impact at all on our real lives.  Our  emotions say differently, though.  On our sofas we feel safe, but outside,  terrible stuff seems to be happening more and more often.  It’s just happening somewhere else at the moment.  In every part of our islands, people believe that it hasn’t reached them yet, but in the end it surely will arrive.

In the city where I live I can  ask any policeman and he’ll be able to tell me, with spooky accuracy:

·         where criminal activity is  likely  to happen next, down to the exact postcode,

·         the day of the week it’ll happen

·         what sort of crime it’ll be

·         the time of day, to within an hour and

·         he’ll supply a profile of the victim

Ask your own local bobby if you don’t believe me.   And trust me, if he knows the weather forecast, he’ll be able to give you even more detail .

How does he do it?

Well, he’s not likely to need a crystal ball to hazard a fair guess.    He knows that certain crimes are much more prevalent on a Friday or Saturday night, when we’ve all had a few.  He knows the areas where trouble is likely to kick off, and he knows exactly which pubs it’s likely to start in.  Being aware of their kicking-out time, he only really needs to station himself there and he’s almost guaranteed a collar. Unless of course it is raining, when trouble is most unlikely as everyone will be hurrying home to escape a soaking.

You might think that the only thing he can’t make an informed guess about  in advance is the perpetrator’s name.  However, in a small city like mine (population approximately 250,000) he could have a fair old stab at that, too.  Our local force has declared that the majority of burglaries here are carried out by only 40 individuals.   The police know all forty of their names and no, apparently they are not led by a Mr. Ali Baba

By following the link at the end of this post,  you can key in your own postcode, and find out what crimes have recently been reported to the police in your own area. It’s good fun, and you might find it quite reassuring.

For example, back to that weather forecast again- maybe thefts from properties near you tailed off during that snowy spell last winter?  I bet they did. (You’d have to be pretty desperate to go out on the rob in that).    You can also compare violent crime in your area (if indeed any has happened) to what’s going on in your local town centre, or to your friends’ street in the next town, simply by adding another postcode. Instant smugness.

As well as getting some (maybe comforting) stats about how safe it really is where you live, you may want to know what lifestyle changes you might need to make so you feel more secure. After all,you don’t want to fit your local rozzer’s victim profile, do you?  None of these involve changing your locks, by the way (although you might usefully do that too, of course)

An  independent review of BCS  findings drew some of the following conclusions on what sort of person is most typically a victim.

·         Someone who goes out a lot, particularly on a Friday and/or Saturday night

·         A male aged from 15 to 24

·         A person who has committed a crime themselves

·         Somebody who has been the victim of another crime in the past year (can be five times more likely to suffer the same fate again!)

·         Who uses the bus to get to work

·         Likes a drink

You’re much safer if you’re a person who is

·         Retired and/or elderly

·         A home-lover with a telly habit, rather than a drink one

·         Someone who walks to work, rather than taking the bus or train.  (It’s safest to drive, but only from a crime-avoidance perspective of course)

·         Parks your car near your home

·         Doesn’t have a car at all (you’re a third less likely to become a victim, and it’s environmentally friendly, too)

·         Stays out of the sun (because riots hardly ever happen during bad weather)

Here’s that link to the national police website where you can check crime in your area.

Don’t have nightmares.

http://maps.police.uk/

and here’s a link to information about the British Crime Survey:

http://rds.homeoffice.gov.uk/rds/bcs1.html